May 2021: Income Report & Retrospective

How much I made in May 2021 participating in Numerai tournaments and as an early stage solo-entrepreneur.

May has been a tough month, my Numerai models have experience more negative rounds than ever, and suddenly the crypto markets crash.

For someone that was already around in the 2017 BTC crash, the current events look like a small correction, and just cryptos being cryptos. But you never know if we are already in the dip.

Here is what I have learned and earned in May 2021

Income Report for May 2021

Numerai Classic Tournament Payout

  • Initial stake: 925 NMR ($53,650)

  • Payout: 109 NMR ($6,322)

  • Average weekly return: +2.91%

  • Monthly return: +11.83%

May has been the least performant month so far but having a higher stake generated a good absolute payout. I had received an approximate payout of 109 NMR ($6,322). This is -260 NMR (-70.45%) than last month.

The average weekly return has been around 2.91% with a monthly return of 11.83%

Numerai Signals Tournament Payout

  • Initial stake: 4.56 NMR ($264.48)

  • Payout: 0.20 NMR ($11,60)

  • Average weekly return: +1.08%

  • Monthly return: +4,38%

It’s been the second month staking in the Signals tournament. I only have one model and it’s heavily based on the example Numerai provides.

What happened in May

Invested some hours in feature engineering for Signals tournament

Signals tournament is getting more interesting every day. The payout factor is still 1 due to the low stakes and smaller user base. I invested few hours in feature engineering and model training. Still didn’t change the submissions but I’m getting good results and will change them during the following weeks.

Continued working on invlio.com

As you already know, my interest in finances has increased significantly. I already shared some spreadsheets and some plots showing the status of my portfolio.

Now it’s time to turn all these spreadsheets and plots into a SaaS product. As a previous step, I’m thinking of building a community to share portfolio strategies with others. If you are interested in participating in this community leave a comment and I’ll add you!

June 2021 goals:

  • Migrate ysignals to a better database system. — This month I’ve invested more hours than expected fixing some problems with the data pipelines in ysignals. It’s still to be decided but after playing a bit with tinybird.co I’ll try to move some of the pipelines (including some feature engineering) there.

  • Try a couple of new approaches for Numerai models. — I want to retry an approach I tried months ago but with some improvements. I hope this time will improve the performance.

  • Invest some hours in feature engineering for Signals tournament. — As I said, my approach is quite simple and I’d like to start creating new features to see how difficult is to get a good model there.